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Big Weather Travel Trouble before Christmas

2,505 views · Published 21 December 2017 · 5:28 · Indexed 29 October 2026

Channel: thornews · 2017 · News & Politics

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We've got our wave after wave pattern with some ice and wild winds to close out 2017. so stay aware during your holiday travels please.
God bless everyone,

T

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https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/fire-threat-wont-let-go-california-philippines-brace-torrential-rains-kai-tak

Fire Threat Won’t Let Go of California; Philippines Brace for Torrential Rain from Kai-Tak

The North Pacific is bookended by two major weather stories this weekend—one involving too much rain, the other too little. A slow-moving tropical storm crawling across the Philippines was adding to rainfall that could end up totaling several feet in some spots (see below). Meanwhile, another round of dangerous fire weather conditions was predicted for parts of Central and Southern California as a destructive, nerve-racking December continued across the parched state.

Critical fire weather possible in parts of Bay Area on Saturday
A strong cold front pushing southward through California will kick up high winds early in the weekend, leading to potentially critical fire weather conditions. In its outlook for Saturday, issued early Friday, the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center highlighted the risk of critical fire weather across a large swath of central California, including most of the Bay Area as well as the North Bay Hills that were hammered by catastrophic fire in October. Relative humidity (RH) is not expected to drop into the less-than-10% range, which is associated with the most severe fire behavior, but north-northeast winds gusting beyond 30 mph may coincide with low RH of 15-25%.

Critical fire weather conditions are also possible from late Saturday into Sunday across parts of coastal Southern California hard-hit by massive late-season fires over the last two weeks.

No rain has fallen in the last two weeks across much of the Southwest U.S. (see Figure 1). With luck, parts of Northern California could see a modest early-winter storm late next week, but otherwise no major rain or snow is expected across the state for at least the next week to 10 days.

Floods and landslides the main threat from Tropical Storm Kai-Tak
Slow-moving Tropical Storm Kai-Tak (dubbed Urduja in the Philippines) will continue to drench the Philippines through the weekend as it slogs slowly westward. High wind shear will keep the storm from gaining a more coherent structure. However, Kai-Tak is embedded in a very moist atmosphere atop very warm sea-surface temperatures (28-29°C or 82-84°F), so it will be a prodigious rain producer, especially as it moves across higher terrain. Earlier this week, as NASA’s polar-orbiting Global Precipitation Mission satellite passed over 96W (the disturbance that became Kai-Tak), it detected rainfall rates topping 143 mm/hr (5.6 in/hr)

At 15Z Friday (10 am EST), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center placed the center of Kai-Tak about 500 miles east-southeast of Manila. The storm was drifting south at just 2 knots but is expected to resume a gradual westward movement, bringing it to the island of Samar on Saturday and across the central Philippines on Sunday as a weak tropical storm.

Kai-Tak’s heavy rainfall rates combined with its slow motion has already led to some impressive rainfall totals, with 27.13" falling at Borongan over the past 4 days. More than 1000 people were evacuated from the northern Mindinao region due to heavy rains, according to ReliefWeb, with several houses destroyed. GFS model output suggests that rainfall over the next several days could exceed 20 inches in parts of the Visayas, the region slammed by Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, and perhaps along the eastern-facing slopes of Luzon.

A large and potent disturbance dubbed 97W, well east of Kai-Tak, could become a much stronger tropical cyclone over the next few days. Computer models have been consistent in developing the disturbance into a typhoon, but there remains a great deal of track uncertainty. The 00Z and 12Z Friday runs of the European model bring this new system across the Philippines in about 6-8 days. In contrast, the last several runs of the GFS model have featured a stronger midlatitude trough that picks up the potential typhoon and recurves it well east of the Philippines.

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