Is The US Yield Curve Inverting Negating The US Equity Low Of October? Impacts On US Sectors

51 views · Published 10 December 2018 · 10:02 · Indexed 10 October 2026

Channel: Dukascopy TV (EN) · 2018 · News & Politics

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With the US 10 year yield below 3 %, together with part of the yield curve inverting US Equity got a headache. US Yield curve is not inverted by all metrics. A yield pullback to 2.80% would maintain the uptrend in yield since 2016. The US Utility sector benefits, while Financials are hurt. Industrials are hurt by the ongoing uncertainty about China-US tariff. Energy and Materials remain underperformer, but it is far from the 2008-2009 case. Defensive still outperforms Cyclicals, but Relative strength (RS) of Staples is pausing and RS of Healthcare is overextended. Thus as RS of Discretionary and Technology are rebounding, these sectors are bottoming. Thus the S&p500 is also in the bottoming process and is expected to make a second higher low before year-end along our green path. Finally, the US dollar index is not breaking up and pausing, a positive for RS of Emerging markets and bottoming potential for Commodities, Bruno Estier, Independent Market Strategist.

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