Weather News with J7409 Sunday August12,2018

717 views · Published 12 August 2018 · 10:47 · Indexed 22 September 2026

Channel: J7409 · 2018 · Science & Technology

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Weather News with J7409 Sunday August 12,2018.
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Isolated severe storms producing strong wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of North Carolina and Virginia into southern Maryland and Delaware. Additional isolated severe storms are possible across portions of central and southern Arizona this afternoon into tonight. A mid/upper trough over the eastern U.S. will slowly shift eastward through Monday morning. As this occurs, southwesterly deep-layer flow will increase across the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. In response, a weak lee trough will develop across the NC/VA Piedmont vicinity and a cold front will shift south/southeast across the region. Scattered thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are expected to develop during the afternoon and shift eastward toward the coast through the evening and overnight hours.

Elsewhere, the Western upper ridge will be suppressed somewhat as the northern Rockies shortwave trough shifts east/northeast toward the far northern Plains and central Canada. Modest cooling aloft and enhanced easterly deep-layer flow will continue to stoke convective potential across the higher elevations of central AZ and another day of isolated strong wind gusts is possible as storms track south/southwest off the Mogollon Rim. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s and afternoon temperatures warming into the upper 80s to near 90 F will result in moderate to strong destabilization by early afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along the higher terrain of VA/NC and move eastward into the Piedmont as the surface cold front shifts southeast. Additional isolated pulse convection is possible along the sea breeze in eastern VA/NC as well. Frontal convection is likely to become somewhat better organized with time as effective shear increases to around 30-40 kt with the ejection of the upper trough late afternoon/early evening. Poor lapse rates and weak low level flow will inhibit severe potential somewhat, but isolated strong/locally damaging winds will be possible with better organized line segments or via wet microbursts. A similar pattern compared to the previous few days will be in place across the Southwest. Midlevel easterlies will be a touch stronger than on Saturday and PW values slightly higher, with moderate instability and steep midlevel lapse rates expected once again. Storms will develop along the Mogollon Rim during the afternoon and shift south/southwest with time. Hi-res CAM guidance and HREF probabilistic forecasts suggest forward-propagating clusters will pose an isolated strong/damaging wind threat into the evening hours. Additionally, midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km and effective shear near 30 kt will be sufficient for isolated hail, especially with any initial discrete cells.


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