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Weather News with J7409 Sunday September 9,2018

2,066 views · Published 9 September 2018 · 16:57 · Indexed 1 October 2026

Channel: J7409 · 2018 · Science & Technology

Weather News with J7409 Sunday September 9, 2018.
Everyone get right for rain , rain and mor rain. ...Virginia Tidewater / Southern Maryland...
With rich moisture pooled along a stalled frontal boundary in the
Mid-Atlantic states, a pattern that has repeated so many times
this summer, heavy rainfall has been nearly automatic. At 08Z
there were already scattered heavy rain showers over southeast
Virginia, and many of the hi-res models produce scattered very
heavy rain throughout the day. With the approach of an upstream
trough, wind fields will strengthen at all levels, leading to some
organized storm modes. Any cells moving right of the mean wind may
move very slowly per Bunkers vectors for right-movers. Cell
collisions will further boost local rainfall totals, while
instantaneous rain rates will be high regardless - given PW values
near 2.0 inches and most unstable CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Some
guidance is exceptionally heavy, in fact, with some isolated
7-inch rain amounts from the WRF-ARW2 and NAM CONUS Nest. The
latter model has a high bias, but the signal in the WRF-ARW2 is
concerning.

Expect clusters of storms to reform northward through the period
as the front and zone of moist/unstable air lifts in response to
the upstream forcing, with more of southern Maryland becoming
active by afternoon / nighttime.

...Tennessee Valley / Lower Mississippi Valley / Texas...
Fairly unusual for ingredients to support continuous Slight Risk
from the Northeast to the Texas coast, but given enough
precipitable water, heating / instability, and supportive model
QPF signal, we chose not to break the Slight Risk that runs along
the length of the frontal zone trailing low pressure over the Ohio
Valley. Even products that take an average, such as the HREF Mean,
produce more than 1.25 inches of rain at most locations in the
Slight Risk area, and the deterministic hi-res models embed 2 to 3
inch amounts. Certainly those local totals could end up being a
little higher wherever cell mergers occur. That scenario appears
more likely with southward extent where sea breeze convection may
clash with the frontal zone convection from Texas to Alabama. Wind
profiles farther north into TN/KY, however, are more conducive for
brief bouts of training convection and locally intense rain rates.

...Upslope Regions of the Southern Appalachians...
The presence of a stalled frontal boundary will focus moisture and
instability availability over the western Carolinas. The approach
of a cold front from the west will set up a trough / lee trough
style pattern with extension of convergent low level flow down
into northeast Georgia this afternoon. Thunderstorms forming near
the high terrain and along the stalled boundary in North Carolina
will likely be slow moving and produce heavy rainfall. There is a
local maximum of hi-res model QPF signal in this area, and we
introduced a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall.

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