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Macro Making A Comeback (Julian Brigden w/ Raoul Pal) | The Exchange | Real Vision™

1,100 views · Published 19 July 2018 · 2:28 · Indexed 22 October 2026

Channel: Real Vision Presents · 2018 · News & Politics

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What are macro signals telling investors about the second-longest bull market in US history? In this episode of “The Exchange,” Raoul Pal and Julian Brigden, of Real Vision’s Macro Insiders, discuss interest rates, market volatility, and the business cycle, in an effort to determine if we’ve finally reached an end-of-cycle top.

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Macro Making A Comeback (Julian Brigden w/ Raoul Pal) | The Exchange | Real Vision™
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Transcript: 
Julian and I both have research services. We've both been around the industry for a very long time, and we've both had very expensive research services for institutional investors. And we realize that retail investors, or less experienced investors, were just not getting the quality of product that the institutional investors were. And part of the ethos of Real Vision is democratizing financial information. And Julian and I were chatting. We look at things in a similar way. We have differences in everything else, as you should expect. But we think of the world in a similar way. And the way we do our homework and analysis is very complementary. So we thought maybe we could get together and do something for the broader public that is less expensive that really does help them understand the macro picture. Because in the end, macro is what really moves asset prices over time. 
And macro is really coming back right now. We had that year last year, but now it's right at the fore. 
Yeah. I think if you look at-- just take something like the VIX. If you look at the progression of the VIX since '09, you've had the central bank policies that have just suppressed, suppressed, suppressed, suppressed volatility. And yet within the last year, we've started to see these little breakouts. And that is as central banks are getting more confident that they've finally reached some sort of escape velocity in the broad underlying economies. We'll see if that's correct. But the point is that that's finally unleashing some of those macro trends that we can start to play. And having been suppressed to this degree, I think things are getting really-- we're just starting. You can taste it. I was on the road recently, and clients-- no one wanted to say macro is back because no one wanted to jinx it. But there's definitely that sense. And my view has always been-- and I've mentioned many, many times-- is that suppressed volatility eventually leads to hypervolatility. And that hypervolatility tends to be the macro time in the sun. And usually, what happens if you've got an extended period where macro is not doing a lot-- i.e. everyone is going to passive, nobody really cares-- then you suddenly get a period where macro will matter for one, two, three, four, five years. And that happens periodically. It's my firm opinion that we're entering that phase now.

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