Look Who it Was Random video

152. Prediction Markets & Superforecasting | THUNK

2,969 views · Published 5 September 2018 · 7:47 · Indexed 28 October 2026

Channel: THUNK · 2018 · Education

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Prediction markets: put your money where your mouth is. (Just don't bet against the superforecasters.)

-Links for the Curious-


The Good Judgment Project: A Large Scale Test of Different Methods of Combining Expert Predictions (Ungar et al, 2008) - http://www.aaai.org/ocs/index.php/FSS/FSS12/paper/download/5570/5871 

Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament (Mellers et al, 2014) - http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956797614524255 

The Promise of Prediction Markets (Arrow et al, 2008) - http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.320.1811&rep=rep1&type=pdf 

Philip Tetlock: Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters - https://fs.blog/2015/12/ten-commandments-for-superforecasters/ 

Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and Their Biases (Rothschild, 2009) - http://researchdmr.com/RothschildPOQ2009 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/oct-23-the-virtues-and-vices-of-election-prediction-markets/ 

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/if-not-polls-then-betting-markets/ 

“So You Think You’re Smarter than a CIA Agent?” by Alix Spiegel - https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2014/04/02/297839429/-so-you-think-youre-smarter-than-a-cia-agent 

“Putting Crowd Wisdom to Work,” by Bo Cowgill - https://googleblog.blogspot.com/2005/09/putting-crowd-wisdom-to-work.html

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