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First Nor'Easter Of The Season On The Way Weather News with J7409

989 views · Published 25 October 2018 · 12:09 · Indexed 4 October 2026

Channel: J7409 · 2018 · Science & Technology

First Nor'Easter Of The Season On The Way. Weather News with J7409.
Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southeast through tonight, with very limited severe risk possible with a stronger storm or two near the coast.. The greatest likelihood for a couple of sustained/rotating storms appears likely to remain over the northern Gulf. Given the presence of the low and quality of the northern Gulf boundary layer moisture, threat appears sufficient to warrant introduction of 2% tornado probability – with potential spreading eastward from Louisiana early, to portions of the coastal Florida Panhandle later in the period and into the overnight hours.
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
central tropical Atlantic about 950 miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands. This low is expected to move northward
over the next couple of days into an area where upper-level winds
are forecast to be conducive for further development, and a tropical
or subtropical storm is likely to form on Friday or Saturday. After
that time, the system is forecast to turn westward well to the
north or northeast of the Lesser Antilles through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
With the synoptic pattern continues to favor an upper-level trough over
the eastern U.S., the stage is set for the first nor'easter of the season
to develop along the East Coast by Saturday. The frontal wave that has
been nearly stationary off the Texas coast for the past few days is being
energized by upper-level moisture originated from former Hurricane Willa
as well as a modest upper-level trough moving into the central/southern
Plains. Under this synoptic setup, the frontal wave will adopt a steady
eastward motion along the Gulf Coast through Friday while gradually
expanding in size. Showers and thunderstorms will be widespread across
the lower Mississippi Valley today, moving into much of the southern U.S.
on Friday ahead of the low pressure center together with increasing
northeasterly winds. By Friday night, much of the Mid-Atlantic into the
Appalachians will see rain, which could become heavy at times overnight as
the low pressure system begins to intensify more rapidly near the
Mid-Atlantic coast. Coastal sections from the Mid-Atlantic into southern
New England will likely see the strongest winds Friday night into Saturday
morning with weather conditions typical of a nor'easter. Conditions
should be much calmer in the interior sections but expect a general area
of rain to spread eastward from the Plains States today into the Ohio
Valley on Friday. On the other hand, interior New England should see
wintry precipitation develop Saturday morning as the low pressure system
approaches from the south.

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