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Tropical Update with J7409 OK People You Better Watch and Pay Attention

2,105 views · Published 5 September 2018 · 22:56 · Indexed 29 September 2026

Channel: J7409 · 2018 · Science & Technology

Tropical Update with J7409. OK People You Better Watch and Pay Attention......Remember this can change.And I really hope all this does changes.....
Florence....The track forecast also has its challenges. The initial motion
estimate is northwestward, or 305/11 kt. It now appears that
stronger upper-level ridging may take shape to the north of
Florence over the next few days, forcing the hurricane to turn back
toward the west-northwest from 36-72 hours. After 72 hours, a
break in the ridge should allow Florence to turn back toward the
northwest, but the bulk of the track models have trended westward
since yesterday. In light of these trends, the NHC official track
forecast has been shifted westward on days 4 and 5, but not quite
as far as the various model consensus aids. It is worth stressing
that there is still a significant amount of spread among the GFS
and ECMWF ensemble members by the end of the forecast period, and
just like the intensity forecast, the track forecast is of low
confidence.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 22.0N 45.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 22.7N 47.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 23.8N 49.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 24.7N 50.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 25.1N 52.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 25.7N 54.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 57.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 28.5N 59.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

Gordon......Even though Gordon is weakening, heavy rainfall will continue to
affect the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama, central
Mississippi, Arkansas, Missouri, southern Iowa and Illinois, with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. This rainfall will
cause flash flooding across portions of these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 32.3N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/0000Z 33.3N 91.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/1200Z 33.9N 92.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0000Z 34.5N 93.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/1200Z 35.3N 93.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1200Z 37.0N 93.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1200Z 39.5N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z 43.0N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

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