Can Cascades be Predicted?
345 views · Published 27 June 2016 · 1:07:14 · Indexed 23 October 2026
Channel: Microsoft Research · 2016 · Science & Technology
Social networks play a central role in spreading of information, ideas, behaviors, and products. As such "contagions" diffuse from a person to person they may go "viral," and large cascades can form. However, a growing body of research has argued that virality and cascades may be inherently unpredictable. Thus, one of the central questions is whether information cascades can be predicted and possibly even engineered. In this talk, I will discuss a framework for predicting cascades and making them go viral. We study large sample of cascades on Facebook and find strong performance in predicting whether a cascade will continue to grow in the future. The models we develop help us understand how to create viral social media content: by using the right title, for the right community, at the right time.
