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Tropical Update with J7409 Kirk and Rosa Thurs AM 9/27/18

1,362 views · Published 27 September 2018 · 19:42 · Indexed 24 September 2026

Channel: J7409 · 2018 · Science & Technology

Tropical Update with J7409 Kirk and Rosa Thurs AM 9/27/18.
Remember this can change.
Kirk............... Tropical Storm Kirk was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 58.3 West. Kirk is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Kirk
will move across the Lesser Antilles within the tropical storm
warning area by this evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of
days, but Kirk is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles and
into the eastern Caribbean Sea as a tropical storm. Another Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Kirk
later this morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km),
mostly north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6
inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands
with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and
Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Across eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2
to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches by Friday and
Saturday.
Rosa......There is no evidence of an eye yet in conventional
IR imagery. Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies,
however, are unanimously 4.5 on the Dvorak scale, so the intensity
is kept at 75 kt. Both atmospheric and oceanic conditions are
favorable for intensification with the possibility of rapid
strengthening within the next 12 to 24 hours, although intensity
guidance is not as aggressive as in earlier runs. The NHC forecast
follows closely the intensity consensus and is very similar to the
previous one. Beyond 3 days, Rosa should be over cooler waters, and
by the time it reaches the northern Baja California peninsula, the
cyclone should have weakened to a tropical storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 17.1N 114.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 17.2N 115.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 17.5N 117.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 17.8N 118.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 18.8N 118.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 22.0N 119.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 25.5N 118.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 29.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

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