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Ben Goertzel - Probability Theory Ensues from Assumptions of Approximate Consistency

649 views · Published 29 July 2015 · 15:29 · Indexed 6 November 2026

Channel: Science, Technology & the Future · 2015 · Science & Technology

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Probability Theory Ensues from Assumptions of Approximate Consistency: A Simple Derivation and its Implications for AGI

Abstract: By slightly tweaking some recent mathematics by Dupre and Tipler, it is shown that, if an intelligence even approximately
obeys certain  simple  consistency  conditions  in  its  reasoning  about  uncertainty, then  its  uncertainty  judgments  must
approximately obey  the  rules  of probability theory. It is argued that, while real-world cognitive systems will rarely be fully consistent, they will often possess approximate consistency of the sort required by this mathematics. The conclusion is that, much of the time, cognitive systems' uncertainty judgments will roughly
resemble the conclusions of probability theory { with more deviation from probability theory when fewer resources are devoted to the maintenance of  consistency.  Implications  for  AGI  architecture  are  briefly  discussed, including the viability of hybrid systems that use (explicit or implicit) probabilistic inference when resources are available for adequate consistency maintenance, and other heuristic methods elsewise.

Paper: http://goertzel.org/agi-13/Why_probability_v1.pdf

Also see: www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2MM6SXPSl0

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