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Tropical Update with J7409 Need to Watch Kirk and Leslie

3,665 views · Published 23 September 2018 · 22:50 · Indexed 12 November 2026

Channel: J7409 · 2018 · Science & Technology

Tropical Update with J7409 Need To Watch Krik and Leslie.
watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X37w3e3yn24
Remember this can change......
Tropical Storm Krik......
Deep convection has diminished near the estimated center of Kirk,
and the main thunderstorm activity is occurring over the
northwestern and western peripheries of the circulation. This has
the appearance of an arc cloud, suggesting that some drier mid-level
air has been entrained into the tropical cyclone. Since the system
should be moving over warmer waters and through low vertical shear
for the next day or so, some strengthening is anticipated into
early this weak. Later in the forecast period, Kirk should be
encountering increasing shear associated with strong upper-level
westerlies over the Caribbean, and this will likely cause
weakening. The official forecast is close to the latest Florida
State University Superensemble prediction and is the same as the
previous NHC forecast.

Based on the latest center fixes, the motion continues swiftly
toward the west, or about 280/20 kt. A mid-level subtropical ridge
to the north of Kirk should steer the tropical cyclone westward at
a fairly fast clip for the next couple of days. By days 3-4, the
ridge weakens a bit and Kirk should slow its forward motion
somewhat. The official track forecast has not changed much from
the previous advisory and is close to the latest corrected
consensus model, HCCA, prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 9.5N 32.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 9.9N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 10.2N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 10.4N 43.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 10.6N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 11.6N 53.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 12.9N 58.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 14.0N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
Sub Tropical Leslie.....
Leslie's cloud pattern has not become any better organized, nor do
we have any data to support a wind increase. The initial intensity
is then kept at 35 kt. The evolution of Leslie is very complex and
difficult to forecast. There is a possibility that Leslie will be
absorbed by a larger low that is forecast to form nearby, or that
Leslie could maintain its identity while rotating around the low. At
this time NHC will maintain continuity and forecasts Leslie to be
absorbed by the large low by 72 hours. No significant change in
intensity or structure is anticipated until then.

Leslie continues to be embedded within very light steering currents,
and most likely the cyclone will merely meander today and
tomorrow. After that time, with the development of the new low to
the north, Leslie will likely be steered eastward until it is
absorbed. The track forecast is highly uncertain given the complex
flow pattern surrounding the subtropical cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 33.5N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 33.4N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 33.2N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 33.2N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 33.0N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

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