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Weather News with J7409 Friday October 5,2018

402 views · Published 5 October 2018 · 4:15 · Indexed 10 November 2026

Channel: J7409 · 2018 · Science & Technology

Weather News with J7409 Friday October 5,2018.
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind damage will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains today. A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms will also exist from parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley eastward to the southern Great Lakes. Shortwave trough currently moving through the central Plains will continue through the Great Lakes early Friday. Farther upstream a positive-tilt upper trough will move into the northern Plains this afternoon, while a weaker southern stream trough approaches the southern High Plains this evening. At the surface a stationary front now extending from the TX Panhandle through OK and into the middle MS Valley will advance north as a warm front, while a cold front surges southward through the central High Plains in association with the progressive northern-stream trough.
Within a broad southwesterly flow regime and as a lee trough becomes established over the High Plains, the stationary front from the TX Panhandle to OK will lift north as a warm front into central KS this afternoon. Meanwhile, a cold front will advance south and merge with this boundary across KS by early evening. Warmer temperatures aloft at the base of an elevated-mixed layer will advect through the northward-expanding, moderately unstable warm sector, and should cap the boundary layer across KS most of the day. However, storms are expected to initiate by late afternoon or early evening as the southward-advancing cold front intercepts the richer low level moisture residing across central KS. Wind profiles will strengthen with effective bulk shear exceeding 40 kt in the vicinity of the front. While some supercell structures are possible, tendency will be for storms to become undercut by the cold front shortly after initiation given the orientation of the steering flow relative to the front. Primary threat will be large hail, but a few damaging gusts will also be possible with storms developing closer to the surface front.

Farther south and west across eastern NM to west TX, the atmosphere will once again become moderately unstable, and storms should develop over the higher terrain as well as within zone of deeper mixing and convergence in vicinity of a lee trough. While wind and vertical shear profiles will be weaker in this region and supportive of multicells, the thermodynamic environment may promote a risk for a few locally strong to severe wind gusts and hail from late afternoon to mid evening. Warm front will advance north through this region and likely extend from northern MO into northern IN by early evening. Storms should be ongoing well north of this boundary early today, but should decrease in coverage by mid morning in wake of a progressive shortwave trough. As the low-level jet strengthens during the evening in association with weak cyclogenesis along the front, additional storms will likely develop, but this activity should remain confined to the zone of isentropic ascent on the cool side of the boundary. Vertical wind profiles with 30-40 kt effective bulk shear could support some rotation with updrafts rooted above the surface which would promote some threat for hail, but weak lapse rates should limit overall hail threat. Some storms could also evolve into clusters/bowing segments with at least a modest threat for a few strong to damaging wind gusts. This region will continue to be monitored for a possible slight risk in later updates.

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