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Update On The Dollar Milkshake Theory | Expert View | Real Vision™

2,660 views · Published 23 October 2018 · 1:46 · Indexed 18 October 2026

Channel: Real Vision Presents · 2018 · News & Politics

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Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, updates his popular "Dollar Milkshake Theory." In this follow-up piece, Johnson covers his call for a strengthening dollar, his pessimism for global bond markets, the risks to U.S. equity markets, and his view on gold. Filmed on October 12, 2018 in New York.
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Update On The Dollar Milkshake Theory | Expert View | Real Vision™
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Transcript: 
When I got off the plane on Wednesday, I'd found out that the Dow Jones had fallen, I think, 800 points that day. And so I'd received a bunch of emails, text messages, Twitter messages asking me what's going on with the theory. Is it falling apart? 
So it's probably pretty good timing that I'm here right now. In a really uh, I guess nutshell, the dollar milkshake theory is that for various reasons that I've gone through in the past, the dollar, I think, is going to strengthen dramatically over the next couple of years. And I think as the dollar strengthens and other currencies weaken, it will lead to more capital flight into the dollar where it becomes this kind of vicious circle outside the United States, and this benign circle inside the United States. 
And that capital flowing into the dollar will help push asset prices in the US higher. I do think interest rates will rise. I think that will also help, this capital flow into the US. It's kind of like artificial QE. The Fed is no longer injecting liquidity into the market, but the liquidity coming from external to the United States, coming into the US, is kind of artificial QE. 
And I think that allows the Fed to continue raising rates slowly. I don't think Powell is going to stop anytime soon, but I don't think he's going to go crazy and jack them up either, but I think the steady progression higher. And as that continues, I think that pulls more capital into the United States. I think it pushes US asset prices higher, and I think we're going to have a spectacular blow- off top in the next couple of years. It's all going to end very badly, but that's how I think the road to the badly plays out.

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