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Forex Strategy - Forex Update: Holiday Mode Continues into this Week Trade with Caution

128 views · Published 28 December 2015 · 15:40 · Indexed 20 September 2026

Channel: Market Traders Daily · 2015 · Education

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Let’s get started here with the US Dollar versus the Swiss Franc [USDCHF] over the past several months. Let’s go back a little ways into October. We could see the beginnings of an uptrend. We see down here, where the red circle is, bottom of the blue trend line. Took a little bit of a rise higher. Not a little bit. A pretty substantial rise higher from the 0.9400s, all the way up into the 1.0300s.

Then it made a little bit of a pullback over the past several weeks. A pullback down towards the 100-period simple moving average, and you could see it coming down here to the green zone, just above the 0.9800-level, and that’s where we’ve been sitting for the past couple of weeks, just above 0.9800. We’ve seen it repel off of there, back up towards 1.0000. Back down towards the mid-0.9800s, and that’s where we sit right now, at the bottom of this black box, just above the 100-period moving average, 0.9800, and that green-shaded area that we see.

We have stayed above the last low. That’s very interesting for this week’s trading. The last low sitting here just at the 0.9800-level and this week so far we have stayed above that. That’ll be an interesting aspect to this week’s trading. If it can’t break through that low, we might see the market turn around. Only if it breaks through that last low and 0.9800 do we look for the continuation lower.

Let’s go ahead and zoom it in here a little bit on the daily. We put this black box there last week, observing the supports down around that 0.9800-level, the 100-period moving average. .618, by the way, of the previous uptrend sits there at 0.9800 as well. So, this week we would expect support there, just above 0.9800, looking for support there. And only if it breaks underneath there do we look for it to continue the downward trend and the pressure lower here for the USDCHF.

Now, today and over the past several days – let me zoom in more time -, you could see this blue-shaded area holding as resistance. That’s 0.9900 to 0.9920 sitting as resistance. We saw an attempt to get above it here, short-lived, and back underneath it. So, that’s your current resistance here for the USDCHF, sitting around that blue zone, 0.9900 to 0.9920. And only if it opens and closes and breaks out above there do we look for the continuation higher, likely back towards parity and the 1.0000-level.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_OjLGGT-rXg

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