Emerging Markets: Vulnerability To Opportunity (w/ Edward Misrahi) | Expert View | Real Vision™

1,880 views · Published 2 June 2018 · 1:49 · Indexed 21 September 2026

Channel: Real Vision Presents · 2018 · News & Politics

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At the beginning of 2017, Ed Misrahi of Ronit Capital was buying the Mexican peso in the aftermath of the U.S. election, when most investors were running the other way. The peso rallied aggressively in the first part of that year. Today, Ed still loves the long-term prospects across emerging markets, but sees excellent rewards from diversification and in leaving a little powder dry for better opportunities ahead. 

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Emerging Markets: From Vulnerability To Opportunity (w/ Edward Misrahi) | Expert View | Real Vision™
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Transcript: 
Historically, if you look at the old-- maybe 15, 20 years ago-- I think rates in EM-- and the dollar would have been the most fundamental issue that you had to worry about because these countries were generally all funding themselves constantly with large current account deficit and needed the access to capital all the time. And whenever rates went up, they would basically struggle. And whenever their rates were good, they would get inflows of money that would create dynamics. I think that there's no question that there's still a correlation with the fact of, let's say, the conditions of a strong dollar, which tend to be higher yields in the US and tightening liquidity. And I think these things still are a factor for EM-- not across all the EM, some countries in EM more than others. But I think the degree of that correlation is lower than, let's say, it was 10, 15 years ago. So I think, on aggregate, when you look at EM, the sensitivity and the vulnerability to a stronger dollar and to higher yields is lower now than it was. But it's definitely there, and it's something that you have to think about in the scheme of investing. So I think now that it looks like we're potentially moving into a reversal of a very weak dollar-- the environment we've had for 18 months, I think that there is a reasonable chance that you'll have a little bit of a hiccup as a result of it. But I don't think-- whereas in the 90s and part of the 20s, that could be terminal for a country in EM and the banking sector, I don't think that is the case now. There's healthier. They're more balanced. They are floating exchange rates. So I think that it's a much more-- it's a factor, but I don't think as dominant as it is. 

Filmed on May 3, 2018 in London.

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