Look Who it Was Random video

A Surprising Outcome From The US Midterms (w/ Jawad Mian) | Expert View | Real Vision™

2,217 views · Published 7 July 2018 · 2:49 · Indexed 26 October 2026

Channel: Real Vision Presents · 2018 · News & Politics

Watch on YouTube

Jawad Mian, who writes the global macro research publication Stray Reflections, saw a bottom in deflation in early 2016 when many were fearing a global bust. He has held a constructive view on equities ever since. In this piece, Jawad explains why risk assets remain on solid ground. He also presents his view that the U.S. midterm elections may deliver an unexpected boost to equities. 

The only financial TV that matters. Start a 14-day free trial on Real Vision to watch more interviews like this: https://rvtv.io/2KQWlkh

Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos
Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe

About Expert View: 
The Expert  View covers discussions on the topics that really matter, right now. Expert guests answer a series of questions on thematic topics that investors most want to know about, offering informative, actionable, and relevant market insight. It’s like being in the same room as an expert investor and being able to ask all the questions you really want answers to.

About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance.  On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™.

Connect with Real Vision™ Online:
Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx 
Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ

A Surprising Outcome From The US Midterms (w/ Jawad Mian) | Expert View | Real Vision™
https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision

Transcript: 
Our most contrarian view right now, which not necessarily is very high conviction, but something that's worth discussing because it's so out of consensus currently is that even though there's increasing belief that Trump faces congressional defeat in the midterms, we actually see the GOP and Trump keeping both houses of Congress. So they will maintain their majority in the House and the Senate. So the consensus, for example, is that given Trump's low approval rating-- below 50%-- that tends to result, looking at historical patterns, about 40 seats lost. And the Democrats need about 24 in the house to take over a majority, so that doesn't bode well. Second thing we know is that the incumbent party tends to do poorly in the midterms, and the first midterms for a first-term president tend to see a loss of about 32 seats. The third observation, also, is that a lot of political experts suggest that a lot of the seats that are toss-ups are in Republican strongholds as well, traditionally. Which means that you could see more Democratic wins than what we've been used to in the past. You combine all of these things, and you get a picture where the Republicans are going to get creamed in the midterms and you will see Democrats take over the House. And that has a very different set of market implications. Our observation is that there are a few things that are different about this midterm. One, even though you've got Trump's approval rating below 50%, it's actually been below 50% throughout his presidency. And in previous examples where you looked at lower approval ratings and the defeat in midterms, you've actually seen the president's approval rating go down in the preceding two years leading up to the election. In Trump's case, we've actually seen it below 50 the whole time, and you've seen it actually bottom and rise into midterms. So, historically, it's a very different pattern of popularity for a president even though it's below 50% still for Trump, which results, potentially, in a different outcome.

More from this channel