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💼Civil Service Impartiality Over Brexit Now in Serious Question!💼

3,170 views · Published 1 February 2018 · 6:18 · Indexed 23 October 2026

Channel: Jeff Taylor · 2018 · News & Politics

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Claims are being made that Treasury officials have been developing gloomy Brexit forecasts in order to keep the UK in the customs union.

In a very serious and worrying development, the spotlight is shifting away from the leaked Brexit report and the economic gravity modelling used to populate it, onto the people who actually write the reports - our traditionally impartial civil service.

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Ministers have been informed that:

“Treasury officials have developed bleak economic forecasts about Brexit in a bid to try to keep Britain in the Customs Union ….”

Reports the Telegraph.

And this surfaced in a House of Commons debate after renowned Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg asked Brexit minister Steve Baker whether he had heard claims from Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform that treasury officials had deliberately developed an economic model that would show that "all options other than staying in the customs union were bad, and officials intend to use this as a means to influence policy".

Steve Baker's answer to MPs was that he was:

“….sorry to say that my honourable friend's account is essentially correct."

He did go on to say that he could not confirm if these extraordinary allegations were true, but he said that he had heard them and was concerned about them and that great caution must be taken to ensure it was taken forward in an appropriate manner.

But Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform, which calls itself 'pro-European' and says it is devoted to making the EU work better, responded by saying that he had never made the allegations.

"......Mr Grant said he had simply passed on that he had heard Treasury forecasting had shown free trade agreements would fail to compensate for the economic costs of leaving the customs union."

Reports the Independent.

I'll let you make of that what you will.

But our Brexit negotiator, David Davis did say in that very same debate that every economic prediction since the referendum had been wrong about the UK economy.

“Every forecasting model on the performance of the British economy post the referendum by every major organisation, the banks, the government organisations and, indeed, international organisations has proven wrong,” he said.

Now on to the PM. On the good side, during her trip to China, Theresa May has promised that the freedom of movement for EU citizens into the UK will cease on Brexit day, the 29th March 2019. Saying that the people "did not vote for nothing to change when we come out of the EU".

But the Sun reports she also knew about this controversial Brexit impact dossier before Christmas and gave it the green light.

And some see this as part of a plot to bounce the likes of Boris Johnson and Michael Gove into accepting a soft style Brexit.

“No10’s plan – orchestrated by Cabinet Secretary Jeremy Heyward – was for the Cabinet Brexit war committee to be shown the grim projections ahead of two crunch meetings next week.” says the Sun.

And a cabinet source is quoted as saying:

“The study is clearly an attempt to bounce Michael and Boris into accepted close EU alignment. It’s disappointing that the PM allowed projections as flawed as this to go ahead.”

Sky reports that the unfinished document will now be made public, with Labour's shadow Brexit secretary Sir Keir Starmer hailing it as a "victory for transparency and accountability". So now we have the prospect of parliament knowingly debating on an unfinished and therefore incomplete report.  Now we’re really talking about flawed decision making! What a pickle those Remainers are getting us all into.

A further topic is George Osborne saying we're headed for a soft Brexit.

Sources:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/01/treasury-officials-developed-gloomy-brexit-forecasts-keep-britain/

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-minister-steve-baker-says-civil-servants-may-be-conspiring-against-the-government-2018-2

http://www.cer.eu

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-hard-brexit-george-osborne-parliament-support-tory-conservatives-eu-a8188751.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/31/theresa-may-promises-free-movement-eu-citizens-will-end-brexit/

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5471805/theresa-may-approved-dossier-showing-any-form-of-brexit-will-harm-uk-economy/

https://news.sky.com/story/ministers-forced-to-publish-leaked-brexit-impact-study-11230715

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