Look Who it Was Random video

Financial Conditions In the US. (w/ Juliette Declercq) | Expert View | Real Vision™

2,965 views · Published 29 May 2018 · 2:50 · Indexed 12 November 2026

Channel: Real Vision Presents · 2018 · News & Politics

Watch on YouTube

Through 2017, Juliette Declercq of JDI Research was a leading advocate of U.S. dollar weakness and the above-consensus European growth. But she has recently spotted clear indications that the global economy has reached a turning point, and has shifted her outlook accordingly. Juliette outlines that change and highlights the tactical trades to employ during this transitional phase for markets.

The only financial TV that matters. Start a 30-day trial on Real Vision to watch this interview in full: https://rvtv.io/2GZrGyq
Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos
Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe

About Expert View: 
The Expert  View covers discussions on the topics that really matter, right now. Expert guests answer a series of questions on thematic topics that investors most want to know about, offering informative, actionable, and relevant market insight. It’s like being in the same room as an expert investor and being able to ask all the questions you really want answers to.

About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance.  On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™.

Connect with Real Vision™ Online:
Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx 
Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ

Financial Conditions In the US. (w/ Juliette Declercq) | Expert View | Real Vision™
https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision

Transcript: 
And what it does to the Fed, is they don't have to worry about growth anymore, because there is a sort of Trump's foot on the economy. The problem is that it sort of creates a vicious circle, where if equities go up, you have real rates going up as well, and now the dollar going up as well. One thing I really recommend this year is to be very tactical, not be married with any positions. So I'm Juliette Declercq. And I founded JDI Research about three years ago now. The company is a niche, macro, top-down research company, which helps institutionals and high net worth investors to make decision using my macro background. My particularity is that I'm a trader at heart. And, basically, it's a trader writing for traders. So the simple answer to that question, and one of my motto at JDI Research, is that better a good chart than a 10-page waffle. So I'll put out my first chart, which shows financial conditions and SPX. And you can see on that chart that there's been a clear breakdown between financial conditions and SPX. And the reason for that is a great shift in the Fed's reaction function, which is actually due to Trump, and Trump's fiscal package. What I mean by that is that now the Fed sort of knows for sure that growth is going to be sustained in the next two years. There's going to be a bit less than a 1% fiscal impulse this year, and a bit more than a 1% fiscal impulse next year. And what it does to the Fed is that they don't have to worry about growth anymore, because there is a sort of Trump's foot on the economy. The issue is what they have to worry about now is, firstly, the fact that inflation is now on target. And, secondly, what some are calling this mandate, which is financial stability. So we've move to a regime where the Fed was sort of worried about whether reflation was sustainable, to a regime of fear against inflation, and what may come up next, and also the third mandate, which is financial stability. The issue with worrying about financial stability is there might be a different mutual rate for the mutual rate that is basically going to stop Wall Street from continuing higher, and the mutual rate that is basically related to the real economy, which balances investment and savings. So as the Fed, when you're trying to now go from targeting this mutual rate, which is unfortunately probably much higher than the economy's mutual rate, you will end up backfired. This will basically end up backfiring on the Fed. The problem is that it sort of creates a vicious circle, where if equities go up, you have real rates going up as well, and now the dollar going up as well.

More from this channel