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Kevin B. Korb - Bayesian Reasoning, The Singularity, Climate Change

911 views · Published 31 March 2012 · 21:52 · Indexed 7 October 2026

Channel: Science, Technology & the Future · 2012 · Science & Technology

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- Bayesian Reasoning
- The Battle of the Priors - Bayesian principles don't establish what the priors should be
- How to establish what the priors ought to be - answer is not obvious - Kevin using some preference ordering.
- Priors, and the case of Sally Clark (well discussed in the statistical community)
- Bayesian's Without Borders - A new blog: http://bayesian-intelligence.com/bwb/
- Limits to Bayesian Reasoning - How probability distributions ought to change (where the evidence suggests that your conditional probabilities need to change Bayes Rule does not do this - you need to look elsewhere)
- Bayesian algorithms are computationally expensive
- Prevalent Misconceptions about Bayesian Reasoning
- Netica: https://www.norsys.com/
- Why should we care about Artificial Intelligence?
- The Singularity - Expected Utility in the long term is, the utility delta is huge (positive or negative) - even a small probability makes for an impact on expected utility
- The Threat of Climate Change & the Singularity - Global Warming has a huge lead on the singularity - we need to address the political influence on climate change denialists
- The Limits to Growth (Global Warming is the biggest limit to growth)

Kevin's current blog: https://bayesianwatch.wordpress.com/

Also see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-AbB26oAV8 - Kevin B. Korb - Philosophy of Science, Bayesian Reasoning 

2nd part of an interview with Kevin B. Korb, this one focusing on Bayesian Reasoning, the Singularity, and Climate Change.

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Kevin's research is in artificial intelligence and the philosophy of science and the interrelation between the two, and especially the automation of scientific induction, or causal discovery. He is also co-founder of Psyche: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Research on Consciousness.

Recent presentations: The Philosophy of Computer Simulation, an invited talk at the 13th International Congress of Logic Methodology and Philosophy of Science, Beijing, 9-15 August, 2007 .
Two Technical Reports

Kevin B. Korb, Carlo Kopp and Lloyd Allison (1997) A Statement on Higher Education Policy in Australia. Dept Computer Science, Monash University, Melbourne, 1997. This is our submission to the West Higher Education Review Committee.

Kevin B. Korb (1998) Research Writing in Computer Science. This is an updated (1998) version of: Technical Report 97/308. Dept Computer Science, Monash University, Melbourne, 1997. This explains some of what goes into good research writing, including argument analysis and an understanding of cognitive errors that people are prone to make. It also discusses research ethics.
"The Ethics of AI"

Kevin's paper on the subject can be found here in pdf format -- Kevin Korb -- The Ethics of AI (IEEE).

Kevin gave a presentation at the Singularity Summit AU 2010.
Abstract: "There are two questions about the ethics of artificial intelligence (AI) which are central:
* How can we build an ethical AI?
* Can we build an AI ethically?
The first question concerns the kinds of AI we might achieve — moral, immoral or amoral. The second concerns the ethics of our achieving such an AI. They are more closely related than a first glance might reveal. For much of technology, the National Rifle Association's neutrality argument might conceivably apply: "guns don't kill people, people kill people." But if we build a genuine, autonomous AI, we arguably will have to have built an artificial moral agent, an agent capable of both ethical and unethical behavior. The possibility of one of our artifacts behaving unethically raises moral problems for their development that no other technology can. Both questions presume a positive answer to a prior question: Can we build an AI at all? We shall begin our review there. "

Also see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oB923DJOJlU

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