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Overconfidence in Polls | Nate Silver | Oxford Union

702 views · Published 29 May 2013 · 3:22 · Indexed 20 October 2026

Channel: OxfordUnion · 2013 · News & Politics

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Nate Silver answers a student's question on overconfidence at the polls.
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Filmed on Sunday 28th April 2013

ABOUT NATE SILVER:
Nate Silver is the world's most famous pollster. First gaining public recognition for his statistical analysis of Major League Baseball, he is most famous for political predictions on his 'FiveThirtyEight' blog, now written for the New York Times. 

In November 2008 he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states in the presidential election and all 35 US Senate races, bringing him further into the public eye. Last year, he went one step better by correctly predicting the winner of all 50 states in the presidential election. 
His 2012 book 'The Signal and the Noise' was the bestselling work of non-fiction on Amazon that year. 

ABOUT THE OXFORD UNION SOCIETY: 
The Union is the world's most prestigious debating society, with an unparalleled reputation for bringing international guests and speakers to Oxford. It has been established for 189 years, aiming to promote debate and discussion not just in Oxford University, but across the globe.

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