AP VoteCast: Trump a dominant force in midterms

104 views · Published 12 November 2018 · 1:40 · Indexed 17 October 2026

Channel: AP Archive · 2018 · News & Politics

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(7 Nov 2018) President Donald Trump was a dominant force in the 2018 midterm elections as attitudes toward the polarizing leader influenced the decisions of more than 6 in 10 voters.
Nearly 40 percent of voters cast their ballots to express opposition to the president, according to AP VoteCast, a national survey of the electorate, while about 25 percent said they voted to express support for Trump.
While Trump is not on the ballot, his controversial presidency has animated voters on both sides of the aisle, with 2018 likely to set turnout records for a midterm election. Democrats have been activated in opposition to Trump since the moment of his election, while in recent weeks Trump has driven Republicans to the polls by trying to cast the race a referendum on his administration. The outcomes of Tuesday's races, which will determine control of Congress, stand to alter the course of the Trump presidency.
The snapshot of who voted and why comes from preliminary results of VoteCast, a nationwide survey of more than 113,000 voters and about 20,000 nonvoters conducted for The Associated Press by NORC at the University of Chicago.
Democrats looking to seize control of Congress have pinned their hopes on women and minority voters, while Republicans have hoped to retain majorities by preserving support among the bloc of voters who propelled Trump to the White House in 2016.
According to VoteCast, women voted considerably more in favor of their congressional Democratic candidate: About 6 in 10 voted for the Democrat, compared with 4 in 10 for the Republican. Men, by contrast, were more divided in their vote.
Urbanites voted almost 2 to 1 in favor of Democrats, and small-town and rural voters cast votes for the Republicans by a smaller margin.
In suburban areas where key House races will be decided, voters skewed significantly toward Democrats by a nearly 10-point margin.
Non-white voters cast ballots for Democrats by a roughly 3-to-1 margin.
Democrats need to gain a net of at least 23 seats in the House and two seats in the Senate to win majorities in the respective chambers.

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