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Nasa says there is a 99 9chance of a 5 0 earthquake in the next three years

584 views · Published 22 October 2015 · 4:22 · Indexed 31 October 2026

Channel: Real Thing TV · 2015 · News & Politics

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Los Angeles warned to brace itself for a 'big one': Nasa says there is a 99.9% chance of a 5.0 earthquake in the next three years.
Nasa is basing prediction on a study of the 2014 La Habra earthquake.
This relieved stress in fault system and shifted upper sediments in LA
Deeper portions of these faults remain locked and map produce quakes.
US Geological Survey (USGS) has said Nasa's analysis is wrong, and there's only 85 per cent chance this could happen.

Los Angeles residents should brace themselves for a big earthquake, Nasa has warned.
The space agency says it is 99.9 per cent sure that LA will be hit by a 5.0 magnitude earthquake in the next three years.
It's basing its prediction on a study of the La Habra earthquake that shook Greater Los Angeles last year.
But in a rare public disagreement, the US Geological Survey (USGS) has said Nasa's analysis is wrong, and there's only 85 per cent chance this could happen.


In Nasa's study, a team led by geophysicist Andrea Donnellan used GPS and airborne radar data to measure surface changes in Earth's crust caused by the March 28, 2014, earthquake.
Their study found the quake deformed Earth's crust across the northern Los Angeles Basin and northern Orange County.

Donnellan explained that when the earthquake struck it relieved some of the stress in the fault system and shifted some of the upper sediments in the LA basin.
The earthquake was felt widely in Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, Riverside, San Bernardino, Kern and San Diego counties.

While the earthquake was relatively moderate in size, the earthquake's depth, at 3.6 miles (5.85km), combined with its location caused more than $12 million in damage.

Most of the damage occurred within a 3.7-mile (6km) radius of the epicentre of La Habra, with a substantial amount of damage south of the main rupture.

The team's results show that even moderate earthquakes near Los Angeles can produce ground deformation and damage to water mains away from their epicenters.
Using computer models, scientists found that the best explanation for the observed ground deformation was shallow movement along several active buried fault-like zone.
These included; the West Coyote Hills in northern Orange County; in the Chino Hills on the border of Orange, Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties; and in the San Gabriel Valley.
It is likely the deeper portions of these faults remain locked and are capable of producing future earthquakes.
'The earthquake faults in this region are part of a system of faults,' said Donnellan.
'They can move together in an earthquake and produce measurable surface deformation, even during moderate magnitude earthquakes.
'This fault system accommodates the ongoing shortening of Earth's crust in the northern Los Angeles region.' 
Donnellan said a future earthquake to release the accumulated strain on these faults could occur on any one or several of these structures, which may not have been mapped at the surface.

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