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Tropical Update Gordon,Florence and Disturbance1

1,825 views · Published 4 September 2018 · 22:18 · Indexed 6 November 2026

Channel: J7409 · 2018 · Science & Technology

Tropical Update with J7409 Gordon,Florence,and Disturbance1.
Remember all this can change....Florence is a nightmare right now to track.. I am probably wrong........But to me its looking like that there is a chance that Gordon's tracking could change the ridge that Florence is following. We Will NOT KNOW the true track of Florence until probably around the end of this week.
Gordon information. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Shell Beach to Dauphin Island, Alabama...3 to 5 ft.
Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft.
Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft.
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to
2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over the northwestern Bahamas, Florida Keys, and South
Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches
are possible over the southern Florida peninsula.

Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6
inches over southern Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, and
southeastern and northeastern Louisiana, with isolated maximum
amounts of 8 inches through late Thursday.

These rainfall amounts may cause flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue for the next few
hours in the warning area across southwestern Florida. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within portions of the central Gulf
Coast warning area by late Tuesday, with hurricane conditions
expected late Tuesday or Tuesday night in the hurricane warning
area.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight
across the southern and west-central Florida Peninsula.A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach
* West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to east of Morgan City,
Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line

Florence information... While there remains a fair amount of spread in
the models from 72 to 120 h, there has been a notable trend to the
right, or north, during the past few model cycles. The official
track forecast is adjusted slightly to the right as well, trending
toward the latest consensus aids.

Little change in strength is expected through tonight as Florence
remains over marginally warm waters and in moderate wind shear
conditions. However, nearly all of the intensity models show a slow
weakening trend during the next few days. This weakening is in
response to a gradual increase in southwesterly or westerly shear.
Beyond a few days, however, the shear is expected to decrease and
Florence will be over much warmer waters. Therefore, slow
strengthening is shown in the 3 to 5 day period. This forecast is
slightly higher than the previous one at the longer range, but is
otherwise unchanged.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 18.6N 39.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 19.0N 41.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 19.6N 43.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 20.4N 46.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 21.5N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 23.7N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 26.0N 55.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 28.0N 57.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

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