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Weather News with J7409 Wednesday 8/22/18

507 views · Published 22 August 2018 · 8:47 · Indexed 30 October 2026

Channel: J7409 · 2018 · Science & Technology

Weather News with J7409 for Wednesday 8/22/18.
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Northern Great Basin into northern Rockies
Beneath the mid-level cold pocket associated with the evolving upper low, models indicate the development of rather steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates with daytime heating. It appears that boundary layer moisture might be sufficient to support at least pockets of CAPE near or excess of 1000 J/kg as early as late morning, from the Wasatch and Uinta Mountains of Utah northward through the Absaroka Mountains of northwest Wyoming/southwest Montana. This may coincide with sufficient strengthening of deep layer shear to support organized convective development, including supercells, with at least a risk for severe hail and wind. Due to lingering uncertainties concerning the extent of the destabilization and potential convective coverage, severe probabilities are being maintained at 5 percent for now, but this may need upgrading in subsequent outlooks.

Southern New England
Winds in the 850-700 mb layer may remain rather modest in strength across much of the region, in between one belt of stronger flow developing northward into Quebec in association with the primary cyclone, and another continuing to progress into the western Atlantic associated with the secondary wave. In association with the latter feature, seasonably high precipitable water content may also be in the process of advecting offshore early in the period. Lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates also appear likely to remain fairly weak, with colder air aloft generally lagging to the west of the surface cold front.

However, guidance is suggestive that as pre-frontal surface dew points linger near 70f, surface heating could still contribute to CAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg by this afternoon. With the approach of the mid-level trough, this, coupled with favorable deep layer shear beneath 30-50 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, may be sufficient to support a couple of strong storms accompanied by a risk for marginally severe hail and strong surface gusts.

Southern Mid Atlantic coast
Models indicate that moderately large CAPE will develop by this afternoon, generally near the coast, across the coastal plain, in the vicinity of a pre-frontal confluence zone/sea-breeze. This may provide a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development, mainly this evening, aided by forcing for ascent associated with an approaching short wave digging into the base of the larger-scale mid/upper troughing. Shear beneath modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow could enhance activity, which may be accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.

Central High Plains
Mid-level lapse rates may become rather modest, resulting in CAPE only on the order of 1000 J/kg with heating by late this afternoon, focused along and south of a remnant convectively reinforced boundary north through east of the Raton Mesa area. However, models indicate that a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet (30-40 kt) may impinge on this boundary and provide support for vigorous thunderstorm development, which may pose some risk for strong surface gusts this evening.

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