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Tropical Update Chris & Beryl PM Monday July 9,2018

2,152 views · Published 9 July 2018 · 17:31 · Indexed 25 September 2026

Channel: J7409 · 2018 · Science & Technology

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Tropical Update Chris and Beryl PM Monday July 9,2018.
watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vgRK3Q_AjY
Beryl...............
An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of
Beryl is producing locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds
over the northeastern Caribbean Sea, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico. The disturbance is expected to move quickly west-northwestward
for the next day or so, passing over Hispaniola tonight and emerging
over the Atlantic waters near the southeastern Bahamas on Tuesday.
Unfavorable upper-level winds and interaction with land should
prevent redevelopment during the next day or so, but environmental
conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for
regeneration of a tropical cyclone on Wednesday or Thursday when the
system is forecast to turn northward near the Bahamas and the
western Atlantic. 

Chris........................
NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance fixes thus far today
indicate that Chris has essentially remained nearly stationary for
the past 9 hours. Steering should remain weak for the next 24 hours
or so due to the cyclone being trapped in a large break in the
subtropical ridge, thus little motion is expected.  However, by 36
hours and beyond, a deepening mid-latitude trough along the U.S.
Northeast and mid-Atlantic coasts is forecast to gradually lift out
Chris to the northeast, with more significant northeastward
acceleration occurring by 72 hours and beyond. Chris is expected to
move across the offshore waters of Atlantic Canada on days 4 and 5
as a powerful extratropical low, possibly passing over southeastern
Newfoundland around the 96-hour time period. The NHC model guidance
continues to show fairly significant along-track or speed
differences. As a result, the official forecast track remains close
to the consensus track models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.

A band of very dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 45
percent has completely encircled Chris, and the cyclone is beginning
to take on the appearance of an annular formed hurricane with a new
15-nmi-diameter, cloud-filled eye having within the central
convective cloud mass during the past couple of hours. The
well-defined inner-core wind field, in conjunction with the with
SSTs near 28 deg C and a low vertical wind shear regime, should act
to maintain inner-core convective development. The result should be
gradual strengthening over the next day or, with Chris becoming a
hurricane later tonight or Tuesday morning and reaching a peak
intensity of 80 kt by 36 hours. Gradual weakening should commence by
48 hours when the cyclone will be moving over cooler water and
southwesterly wind shear begins to increase to near 20 kt. By 72
hours and beyond, Chris will be over SSTs less than 20 deg C and
within stronger shear environment ahead of an approaching deep-layer
trough, which will induce a rapid transition to a powerful
extratropical cyclone before the system approaches Newfoundland in
about 96 hours. The extratropical low is forecast to merge with a
cold front in 96-120 hours, which should enhance the extratropical
transition process. The new NHC intensity forecast is just an update
of previous two advisories, and similar to the intensity model FSSE,
which is sightly higher than the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus
models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 32.2N  74.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 32.3N  74.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 32.8N  73.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 34.0N  71.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 36.1N  69.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 42.2N  61.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  13/1800Z 48.3N  50.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  14/1800Z 52.0N  35.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP.

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