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Tropical Update with J7409

1,520 views · Published 17 June 2018 · 16:22 · Indexed 8 November 2026

Channel: J7409 · 2018 · Science & Technology

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Tropical Update Texas Coast. Be Aware of Possible Tornadoes.
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Remember this can change.  If i see any changes with this trough system i will be sure and post it.  A storm with tropical roots will provide Texas’s Gulf Coast with much-needed drought busting rainfall and thunderstorms late this weekend into much of next week at the risk of a growing flash flood threat.

A poorly organized area of low pressure located across the west-central Gulf of Mexico will pump plenty of tropical moisture northward later today, supplying southern Louisiana and the Upper Texas Gulf Coast with locally heavy downpours and thunderstorms. As the storm drifts to the west toward the central and southern Texas Gulf Coast from Monday to Wednesday, heavy rain and thunderstorms will multiply and repeatedly track deeper into the Lone Star State.

By Thursday and Friday, a methodical southwestward drift into Mexico will keep the heavy rain and flood concern high across southern Texas. Thankfully by the start of next weekend though, the storm will start to weaken and pull even further south into Mexico, bringing an end to the soggy, stormy weather.

Cities like Houston and Galveston to Corpus Christi, Brownsville and McAllen, Texas, will be most at risk for repeated drenching downpours and urban or flash flooding through next week.

Impressive rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches will drench Texas’ Gulf Coast, with totals further inland along and south of the Interstate 35 corridor from Waco to San Antonio and Laredo, Texas, measuring 2 to as much as 5 to 10 inches of rainfall by next Friday. Although these heavy rain totals will cut away at short and long-term drought deficits in place, it will lead to urban or flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas vulnerable to poor drainage. Remember, if you approach a flooded roadway, it is best to “Turn Around, Don’t Drown”.

The rainfall will erase or nearly erase large precipitation deficits and ongoing drought conditions along the Texas Gulf Coast this week. Precipitation deficits ranging from 3.71 inches in Brownsville to 12 inches in Galveston, Texas, could end up being a surplus for most along the Lone Star State’s Gulf Coast thanks to this storm with tropical origins.


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The combination of a surface trough and an upper-level low pressure
system is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms over the west-central Gulf of Mexico.  This system is
producing strong gusty winds over the northern and northwestern
Gulf.  Environmental conditions do not support significant
development, however, heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to
continue across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico today.  This
activity will reach portions of the Texas and southwestern Louisiana
coasts later today.  For more details on this system, please see
products issued by your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

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