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The Brexit Divorce Bill - Billions Added!

3,795 views · Published 21 April 2018 · 8:27 · Indexed 19 October 2026

Channel: Jeff Taylor · 2018 · News & Politics

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A Whitehall watchdog warns that the Brexit Divorce Bill could cost far more than predicted.

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Before I start I'd just like to say Happy Birthday to Her Majesty the Queen!

Now, the press is full of warnings that the final exit of the UK from the EU could cost us far more than the £35 to £39 billion initially estimated.

"The cost of the Brexit divorce bill for the UK could be billions higher" says the Guardian.

"The National Audit Office (NAO) has warned that the so-called ‘divorce bill’ the government has promised to pay the EU could be billions of pounds higher than estimated." Says Breitbart.

Now, both sides do have an interest in hyping this up, one side to get people to reject Brexit, the other to force a hard Brexit.

But there is yet another side to this. The report actually concluded that the bill could go up or down.

And writing in CapX George Trefgarne says that we should rejoice because the Brexit divorce bill is shrinking.

"Great news! - he writes - The EU divorce bill of £35-£39bn has gone down already and might be lower still. That is what the National Audit Office has found."

And he goes on to say that the eventual cost will be driven by such things as exchange rates and economic growth differentials between the EU and UK.

As an example, he points out that the deal was struck when the pound was weaker than it is now and he says:

"As a rule of thumb, for every euro cent the pound rises, the Brexit bill goes down by £330m."

So a stronger pound against the euro is good news!

But that would be offset should the UK economy grow more strongly than the EU economy under a complex set of relative economic growth rules.

The truth is it could eventually be higher or lower that the £35 to £39 billion we were told about. But there are swings and roundabouts involved that mean it may differ from the original estimate, but within an acceptable ballpark.

Other topics include staying in the single market, Baroness McGregor-Smith voting against the government, Australia wanting a trade deal with the UK outside the single market, Theresa May facing a potential leadership challenge, the City of London not losing all the jobs it feared in a mass Brexodus and Singapore wants a trade deal!

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