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Weather News with J7409 Where is The Chance Of Severe Weather Today Find Out Here

617 views · Published 17 August 2018 · 12:15 · Indexed 27 October 2026

Channel: J7409 · 2018 · Science & Technology

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Weather News with J7409 looking at chances of severe weather.
watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_03K5ljdgI
the link above has a breakdown of the tropical systems and what might some receive and when.   Isolated severe thunderstorms with mainly a strong to damaging wind threat will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Northeast. Additional storms may produce sporadic strong wind gusts from the central High Plains to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley vicinity, and across parts of the northern Rockies. Northeast
A warm front will quickly lift northward across northeast NY and VT/NH this morning. South of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected. Modest heating, with highs generally from the upper 70s into the 80s, will be sufficient for the development of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer south/southwesterly flow will increase with the approach of the upper trough and thunderstorms are expected by early afternoon in the vicinity of a prefrontal trough across eastern PA/NY, as well as along the warm front across VT/NH into southern New England. 25-35 kt effective shear will be sufficient for organized clusters and marginal supercell structures capable of strong, locally damaging wind gusts and marginal hail. While low-level shear is not particularly impressive, backed low-level winds in the vicinity of the surface trough and warm front, coupled with forecast mean mixing ratios around 16 g/kg, a brief tornado or two can not be ruled out.

Additional thunderstorms may develop later in the evening as a surface cold front shifts southward from Quebec, but severe potential will be limited as boundary-layer stabilization ensues with loss of daytime heating.  AR into the OH/TN Valley Vicinity
Ongoing convection at the beginning of the period will impact where stronger storm develop/re-intensify later this afternoon. Current best guess is that convection moving into the lower OH valley vicinity this morning may persist and re-strengthen across KY/TN where a moist and unstable airmass is in place. Modest deep-layer shear will result in multicell clusters and downburst winds will be the main concern with any surging/bowing line segments that develop. Additional convection is possible along residual outflow across AR into western TN/MS. Shear will become even weaker with southward extent, but strong instability combined with PW values near 2 inches will continue to foster downburst wind potential with any stronger clusters. Central/Southern High Plains
Thunderstorms will develop in weak upslope flow regime as a weak impulse migrates across the central Rockies. Strong heating and modest boundary layer moisture will result in a corridor of moderate instability across eastern CO into parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. High-based convection will mainly pose a strong wind threat as cells struggle to maintain intensity due to lack of stronger deep-layer shear. Additionally, some marginally severe hail is possible with any stronger cell that can develop given steep midlevel lapse rates. Northern Rockies
Strong heating and modest boundary-layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will promote isolated thunderstorm develop during the afternoon and evening. High-based thunderstorms will mainly pose a dry microburst threat given inverted-v thermodynamic profile, and a few strong wind gusts are expected.


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