Look Who it Was Random video

How Historians Already Use Bayes Theorem w/ Richard Carrier || Did Jesus Exist

3,436 views · Published 27 July 2018 · 24:54 · Indexed 25 September 2026

Channel: Godless Engineer · 2018 · Entertainment

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What's Up Heathens! Today we are continuing our talk with Richard Carrier about Bayes Theorem and how historians already use it in determining their conclusions. 

We start off discussing another bad piece of evidence this time from a mythicist position. That bad evidence is called the Nazareth evidence. It says that Jesus couldn't have come from Nazareth or something like that because it would have been embarrassing. It uses the Criterion of Embarrassment in order to make its case, which is itself self-refuting. We model that up and find that these two bad arguments give us a best and worst case of 90% and 50%. We demonstrate how you can model bad arguments using the calculator to see why people think the way they do.

This leads us to talk about how people already use the language of probabilities and especially historians. We discuss how a lot of times historians don't know how their arguments work they just know it is the argument. Bayesian analysis is how we come to conclusions about the past. Any time you use the words "most probably", "more likely", "likely", and other such words, you are using the language of probability and should have used Bayesian analysis to come to your conclusion.


Article mentioned:
http://bit.ly/TestingBayesianHistory

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