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Bonds Are Very Tricky (w/ Russell Clark) | Interview | Real Vision™

2,073 views · Published 10 November 2018 · 2:05 · Indexed 2 October 2026

Channel: Real Vision Presents · 2018 · News & Politics

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Russell Clark of Horseman Capital has been building a short thesis on US shale oil and semiconductor stocks. He thinks that the decline in shale sand efficiency will be a force that drives the oil price higher and put downward pressure on the USD as future foreign investment diverts away from the US to alternative international opportunities. Filmed on October 11, 2018 in London.
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Bonds Are Very Tricky (w/ Russell Clark) | Interview | Real Vision™
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Transcript:
Bonds are very tricky. Historically, I like them because there's so much debt it's very hard to see interest rates go up a lot because you start getting into real problems of the interest expense and other things like that. 
I find the States, contrary to market positioning and recent performance, I find the US very, very troubling and very, very, very problematic-- super problematic. As we think about this industry is that-- especially with hedge funds and that sort of stuff-- people always think, oh, there's some magic stuff. 
And when you look at all the big trades, it's like, oh, US houses are too expensive. So we short the guys who went against them. I mean, is that that hard? Or oil prices like 120 and lots of production is coming on? So now it fell. I mean, these are not mystery trades, it's just that they've continued for so long people have just sort of accept that they're part of the wallpaper or something like that. 
So the US is a-- I find truly extraordinary in that if you look at the US economy now, you got all- time highs-- or all-time highs in the stock market more or less. Been strong property markets, unbelievably great employment numbers. I mean, fantastic. 
Now if you told me all that and then said, Russell, what do you think the US fiscal deficit would be? Well I go, well, you know back in the dotcom bubble days, they ran a 2% surplus. So, let's say a 2% surplus again? And you go, no, it's like a 4.5% deficit. 
What happens if there is a recession?

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