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Inflection Points In Stocks (Raoul Pal w/ Julian Brigden) | Macro Insiders | Real Vision™

2,177 views · Published 12 November 2018 · 1:49 · Indexed 19 October 2026

Channel: Real Vision Presents · 2018 · News & Politics

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Raoul and Julian ponder whether we've reached an inflection point in equities on the back of tightening financial conditions and higher rates. Filmed on 1st Nov.
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Inflection Points In Stocks (Raoul Pal w/ Julian Brigden) | Macro Insiders | Real Vision™
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Transcript:
We've been talking about setting this sort of inflection point, where some-- where the equity market finally succumbs to higher rates, particularly bond yields, and a stronger dollar, and then starts to contribute to the tightening of financial cushions itself. And I think people have seen that over here, they are broadly-- and I was quite surprised-- they're actually pretty bearish on the US growth picture. So people now are contemplating a bit more in your camp, Raoul. 
You don't hear that. I don't get the same in the US. 
No, no, definitely. 
People are more sanguine now. 
Yeah, definitely, definitely not. But people here are sort of, where do I bet that the Fed is gone? You know, how do I play that euro dollar curve, which I know for most of my clients, this is a bit technical. But essentially, at what point do we get the Fed going on to hold, or even potentially, ease. You know, is it after Dec, is it after March? But it isn't much further for most of the clients here. They think it's-- that the growth picture next year in the US looks pretty appalling, to be honest. And I don't-- look, I mean, we flagged back in the spring, the housing risk. And obviously, that's accelerated. It's on the front page of every single newspaper. I have plenty of our clients who wanted to sell their house, sold it while they still had a chance.

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