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Depression 3 will probably make it to Cat 1 Beryl Now A Tropical Storm

1,388 views · Published 7 July 2018 · 19:15 · Indexed 30 September 2026

Channel: J7409 · 2018 · Science & Technology

Depression 3 and Tropical Storm Beryl Update Sat AM 7-7-18.
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Tropical Storm Beryl
The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and
discontinued the Hurricane Watch for Dominica.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Martinique, Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius.
A west-
northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of
Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, cross the
island chain late Sunday or Monday, and move south of the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, especially once Beryl reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea
on Monday. The system could degenerate into an open trough by the
time it reaches the central Caribbean Sea and Hispaniola on Tuesday.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Dominica by Sunday
night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas
of the Lesser Antilles by late Sunday or Monday.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches through Monday across the southern Leeward and
northern Windward Islands. Across the remainder of the Leeward and
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts are expected.

Depression 3

An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft will check the
depression later this morning, so we will have more information
about the intensity and structure of the depression later today.
The cyclone will remain over warm waters and in a relatively
low-shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days. Based on these
conditions, the NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening at a
rate very close to the HCCA corrected consensus model. The cyclone
will most likely begin to acquire extratropical characteristics by
the end of the forecast period.

The depression is embedded within very weak steering currents, and
little motion is anticipated for the next 2 days. After that time,
the cyclone will be steered toward the northeast with increasing
forward speed within the southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching
mid-level trough. Guidance clearly indicates the cyclone's slow
motion during the next 2 days, and unanimously forecast the cyclone
to accelerate to the northeast thereafter. The NHC forecast is in
the middle of the guidance envelope, and very closely follows the
multi-model consensus.

Guidance continues to suggest that the forecast tropical-storm-force
winds associated with the cyclone will not reach the U.S. coast. On
this basis, no watches or warnings are required at this time,
however, interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the
progress of the depression.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 33.1N 74.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 33.4N 74.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 33.5N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 33.5N 73.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 33.5N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 35.5N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 39.5N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 47.0N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

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