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China, PMI and gold and silver price issues

3,383 views · Published 2 May 2016 · 11:27 · Indexed 22 September 2026

Channel: The 2% Brief · 2016 · People & Blogs

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China, PMI and gold and silver price issues 

Today is Monday 2nd May 2016 and we are addressing the issue of China, PMI and gold and silver price issues.

With gold prices up 22% since the 1st January and silver up 29% (in US dollar terms), many people are asking why and is this trend set to continue?

Well a number of factors have affected these prices, not least of these have been the FED’s rather dovish approach to interest rates, thereby causing the dollar index to decline from 99.6 to its current 93 level, zero or negative interest rates in many nations throughout the world including Europe and Asia ensuring precious metals becoming more attractive for investors, and an acceptance that their significant fall from their 2011 highs may in fact have been overdone.

One of the main concerns has been global economic decline not least the slowdown in the Chinese economy resulting in their lowering of GDP forecasts to below 7%. 

However, earlier yesterday, it was announced that the official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.1 in April, but  barely above the 50-point mark that separates expansion in activity from contraction. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted the reading would improve to 50.4, after upbeat March data fuelled hopes that the country's prolonged economic slowdown was easing.

A recent article on Zero Hedge has indicated that China has been growing its silver inventories quite substantially for the past 6 months.  This month, as of April 19, the Shanghai Futures Exchange added a massive 1,706 tonnes, which is a 452% increase from the amount it added in April 2015. Shanghai silver inventories are now at their highest level ever.

However, that said, we could very well see gold rise above $1300  and silver above $18 - $18.50 in the interim and at these levels significant resistance will be met. Nevertheless, pull backs, we believe later in the year, will give purchasers another opportunity to purchase these metals at lower prices but onward looking, can see that 2015 may indeed have provided the lows and that a new paradigm is beginning to emerge. 

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