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Oil prices likely to remain within $40 - $50 for the remainder of the Year

994 views · Published 24 September 2016 · 5:58 · Indexed 26 October 2026

Channel: The 2% Brief · 2016 · People & Blogs

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Oil prices likely to remain within $40 - $50 for the remainder of the Year

Today is Sunday 25th September 2016 and we are looking at the likely trend for oil prices for the remainder of the year.

Overproduction of oil, powered by a desire to see off a threat from the US shale industry, has sent oil prices into a prolonged slump and caused economic turmoil for many of Opec’s members. With the oil price still gyrating around sustained lows, many oil producing countries are in crisis. Opec will gather for the third time this year on Monday to discuss crude-oil market conditions. 

Since topping out in June at just over $50 a barrel for both Brent and WTI crude oil, prices fell to near $40 a barrel in early August. While that’s well above the year’s low of sub-$30, prices are far under where they were in late 2014 when Opec embarked on its goal to seek market share.

So, Unless Opec meaningfully cuts production, oil prices aren’t likely to move out of their current $40 to $50 range this year. It’s possible that values may stay at the lower end of that level in the short-term because demand is looking weak. Although US gasoline use was a record this year, Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at US Bank Wealth Management, said it still wasn’t enough to draw down inventories.

Also, the International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global oil demand for 2017, citing economic uncertainty, which may mean the imbalance between supply and demand will likely continue for some time to come.

Attempts by some member-states such as Venezuela, suffering the worst economic crisis in its history, to persuade Opec to return to its traditional role of ensuring price stability versus seeking market share were ignored, despite the policy’s economic toll. All member-states are feeling the impact of lower oil prices to some degree, with poorer countries like Venezuela affected to a much greater degree than wealthier countries like Saudi Arabia, which can maintain current low prices well into 2017.

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