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BREXIT Vote of No Confidence in PM Theresa May decided Today

1,169 views · Published 12 December 2018 · 6:12 · Indexed 10 November 2026

Channel: The 2% Brief · 2018 · People & Blogs

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Today is Wednesday 12th December 2018 and we are briefly covering the Conservative Party’s decision to hold a Vote of Confidence or No Confidence in British Prime Minister Theresa May

Without going into too much detail here as it is covered quite extensively on our website, Theresa May’s negotiated settlement with the EU, which was due to be voted on in Parliament yesterday, was not brought before the House. As we predicted in past videos and articles, it eventually became clear to the British Prime Minister that she would not win the vote, so she decided not to have it – but promised to try and renegotiate the deal with the EU – which basically gave her short shrift and told her that Deal or No Deal. 

The frustration within her own Party has therefore led members to petition the Conservative 1922 Committee (or if you like ‘men in a smoked filled room’) for a Vote of Confidence in the Prime Minister which is being held today. There needed to be 48 out of the  315 Conservative MPs to trigger a confidence vote and this threshold was reached.

The vote will take place between 18.00 – 20.00 GMT today and the result will be declared shortly afterwards.

To survive the vote the PM needs 158 to vote in her favour. If she achieves this then no further challenge can be mounted for 12 months. However, for her to truly be seen as victorious she really does need as many votes as possible above this figure, otherwise, the fraction within the Party will only increase.

If she loses the vote, a new leader will be elected which could take up to 6 weeks to achieve and that person becomes the Prime Minister – with Mrs May acting as caretaker during the interim. It would be likely that her successor would be a ‘Hard Brexiteer’ meaning that there would not be a deal with the EU as such and that the UK would exit under WTO rules – something which the establishment does not wish to see but the Brexiteers are quite content with.

Frankly, even if she does win, we cannot see what deal she can make with the EU being so intransigent. It is indeed quite possible that she too may have to take the UK into a Hard Brexit exit though we are very well aware this is her least favoured position. 

It is just possible that some further concessions may be made, but the EU feels it has to send a message to its other members – ‘if you want to Exit – it will cost you’.

Our view is that a Hard Brexit would be very de-stabilising for a while and sterling will undoubtedly fall further. What will decide the success thereafter will be the negotiating skills of the UK Government and Businesses to strike additional trade deals outside of the EU  and outside the confines and restrictions that the EU imposes.

It genuinely could give Britain its country back but in so doing will cause much pain in the short term. 

Gold is currently standing at £990 an oz up from £900 only a couple of weeks ago and silver stands at £11.64 almost £1 an oz up from the same period. The vote this evening will impact those prices further – if May loses sterling will fall as uncertainty abounds, if she wins it will strengthen a little but again much then depends upon what she can negotiate.

Exciting times ahead for the British and the EU while the US tackles the rather sedentary and calming political environment of the White House – yes that was a pun.

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