Trump Presidency – is an economic Collapse Inevitable?

2,815 views · Published 1 November 2016 · 10:31 · Indexed 18 October 2026

Channel: The 2% Brief · 2016 · People & Blogs

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Trump Presidency – is an economic Collapse Inevitable?

Today is Monday 1st November 2016 and we are commenting on what is likely to happen in the first 100 days or so should Donald Trump become President.

We have already heard some of the main policies that Donald Trump will impose. Whether he achieves this or not, does not matter, as this is what the public, the establishment and traders believe he will attempt to do. So what will be the immediate response? Well in this video we shall cover what others believe will happen and in part 2 we shall express our view. Part 2 will be published on Thursday.

Trump has sold himself as a change agent. Not part of the establishment and someone who will rock the political elite to the core. He will slash taxes, send troops in to deal with ISIS, levy import duties to those countries he believes trade unfairly, increase military spending, abolish Obamacare and restrict immigrants into the United States.

All of these are a recipe either for great success or total and utter turmoil. According to Simon Johnson, economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology should Donald Trump win the Presidency;

“it would likely cause the stock market to crash and plunge the world into recession. Trump’s trade-led recession would tip Europe back into full-blown recession, which would likely precipitate a serious banking crisis.”

According to Forbes:

“A Trump win could see short-term fluctuations in U.S. dollar markets due to the uncertainty of markets about the effects of his policies on the U.S. economy.”

Matthew Lynn of Marketwatch.com wrote only last month:

“If you thought Brexit was scary for financial markets, wait for the reaction to a possible Trump victory. There would be panic, and a rapid repricing of assets across the world. Expect the dollar’s bull run to end, and the euro to stage a rally; expect a plunge in China, rippling out to the rest of the emerging markets; and expect the price of gold and every other kind of safe haven to soar. It would certainly be dramatic, and possibly ugly as well.”

According to the Telegraph a couple of days ago:

“A Trump victory is therefore likely to produce a sharp markdown in equities, as investors discount the unexpected and the unknown. Unlike the Brexit news, which prompted a slump in the value of sterling, the dollar is likely to rise as investors engage in a “flight to quality”. Investors may want to own the global reserve currency as a safe haven investment, but shun US assets such as stocks and bonds.  This is a repeat of the situation seen in the financial crisis, where the dollar index peaked in March 2009, at the same time as global equity markets hit their lows.”

A slight difference of opinion over the value of the dollar, but all establishment figures confirming that stock markets will be punished and global growth adversely affected.

So the scene is set. In part 2 we shall reveal what we believe will happen and how the establishment will still manage to benefit due to early preparation, should Donald Trump become the next President of the United States.

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