Look Who it Was Random video

Who really won Iowa - Cruz - No - Trump - No - Rubio - Yes

1,439 views · Published 2 February 2016 · 4:20 · Indexed 22 October 2026

Channel: The 2% Brief · 2016 · People & Blogs

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Today in Tuesday 2nd February 2016 and we are discussing the Republican caucus result in Iowa and who we believe is the true victor of that caucus.

Now in mathematical and candidate terms of course Ted Cruz won with a convincing 28% with Donald Trump some 4% lower at 24% and Marco Rubio only 1% below Trump at 23% with other candidates so far down the scale most reports barely mention them.

Now there were 2 surprises, the first being that Donald Trump did not win, especially  as the latest polls for Iowa showed that he had a couple of percent lead and his national polling showing a considerable percentage gap between him and the second place candidate Ted Cruz. 

However, media reports have long suggested that Cruz has had a much better organisation on the ground in Iowa than did Trump and this was reflected in the result. 

The second surprise, and in our opinion the most important, was the rise of Rubio almost equalling the Trump vote. Now Rubio was never going to win Iowa and in our view purposely downplayed expectations. However this significant result for him has given him the launch pad for what we believe to be the establishments fight back against the two anti-establishments candidates Trump and Cruz. 

It is quite possible, that although Trump is almost guaranteed to win the next caucus at New Hampshire, it is now likely that Rubio will have enough momentum to strip significant votes away from the remaining establishment candidates and thereby pronounce himself as the single viable anti-Cruz, anti-Trump alternative – and should this occur, then we shall see a number of candidates drop out of the race in favour of Rubio. You heard it here first.

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