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Deutsche Bank agrees to pay US Authorities $7.2bn – Financial opportunity missed

2,060 views · Published 23 December 2016 · 6:47 · Indexed 6 November 2026

Channel: The 2% Brief · 2016 · People & Blogs

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Deutsche Bank agrees to pay US Authorities $7.2bn

Today is Friday 23rd December 2016 and we are briefly covering Deutsche Bank’s agreement to pay US Authorities $7.2bn.

On the 30th September we produced a video entitled Deutsche Bank on the Brink of a deal with the Department of Justice concerning their $14bn potential fine for mortgage security fraud.

Our conclusion to that video was that a deal was likely, though some in the internet world were calling that no deal would be agreed and that this was the beginning of the global financial collapse. Here are the words we used in our conclusion:

 “Although there is no corroboration that such a deal has been agreed, can anyone really and truly expect that the Authorities and Central Banks will allow Deutsche Bank to fail thereby creating a run on other major banks and possibly the collapse of the whole economic system? It isn’t going to happen – too big to fail”.

Well it looks as if a deal has been struck. It is reported by the BBC and by Reuters today:

“Germany's Deutsche Bank says it has agreed a $7.2bn (£5.9bn) payment to US authorities over an investigation into mortgage-backed securities. The sum, which needs final approval, is far lower than the $14bn the US had asked the bank to pay in September. That looming fine had caused concerns that a failure of the bank could pose a risk to the global financial system.”

The Department of Justice's opening gambit was a $14bn fine. That would have been extremely serious for the company - equivalent to more than half of its market value. Deutsche was hoping to pay in the region of $5 billion, based on the penalties doled out to other banks which allegedly mis-sold mortgage-based investments.

Of the $7.2bn only $3.1bn of that is actually a fine. The rest is made up of "consumer relief" - changes to loans and other help for borrowers - which can be spread over a period of 5 years that will aid a number of US homeowners.

Investors, who had feared an even bigger penalty for Deutsche, were relieved and its shares gained more than 2%. They have risen more than 80% since hitting a record low at the end of September on fears the bank would need to raise cash from investors.

Whilst we are no longer investment advisers and do not purport to be, we do recall a number on Youtube shouting avoid Deutsche Bank they are about to collapse – their shares could soon reach zero. 

Anyone who ignored those emotional outbursts and looked calmly at the situation could have calculated that the fear had been overdone and that there is not a cat in hells chance of the Government allowing Deutsche Bank to go to the wall. Some would have achieved a very attractive capital gain if they had realised this soon enough.

When our Inner Sanctum is opened in January, we shall be making observations which, if applied to certain sectors, could enable you our subscribers to profit from these situations. 

When we produce a video, unless it’s just for fun which is rare, we do so because we are either aware of, or on the grounds of probability, confident that certain ramifications will result.

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