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Fed Rates rise means no more rises until December 2017

1,618 views · Published 14 June 2017 · 5:16 · Indexed 28 October 2026

Channel: The 2% Brief · 2017 · People & Blogs

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Fed Rates rise means no more rises until December 2017

Today is Wednesday 14th June 2017 and we are remarking on the FED interest rate rise today.

This afternoon, the FED raised its key interest rate target by 0.25% to a range of 1% - 1.25%. This was widely expected by markets and Janet Yellen stated “Our decision….. reflects the progress the economy has made and is expected to make”.

The dollar index immediately jumped from its near day low of 96.5 to its current level of 96.9 and may very well breach its day high of 97.09. As we speak, the Dow Jones Index is up 13 at 21,341. Gold fell $20 following the announcement having peaked for the day just before it and currently stands at $1,258 and silver similarly peaked at $17.29 and is currently 41 cents lower at $16.88.

So what do we make of this announcement. Well we were not surprised about the rise, but in fairness we would also have not been surprised had the rise not occurred. The reason simply being that the past 2-3 months job data had been downgraded with less jobs being created in the last report by a significant margin than that envisaged – some 42,000 jobs in fact. US consumer prices unexpectedly fell in May and retail sales recorded their largest fall in 16 months. Now whilst we were unaware of these figures, our calculations did suggest that these figures would be lower which was why we would not have been surprised if rates had remained the same. Had the FED done so, then they could have raised rates in September. We are now quite confident that such a raise will be delayed to December if rates are raised at all especially with inflation only standing at 1.7% to May 2017 compared with the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.

What is of special interest however is the statement which followed the rise which proved somewhat hawkish in manner, by providing quite a high level of detail on how to achieve balance sheet normalization for the year. We believe that the FED is confident that it is on a growth track but is also probably expecting a couple more months of weak data and is therefore propping up its hawkishness, to some extent to mitigate the somewhat weak data figures that may occur. So they will now play the game that rates may rise in September and then possibly put it off until December but not suggest so until September arrives.

Either way, this means gold and silver prices should see a downward trend at least for the next couple of months, though the political agenda is so chaotic at present, do not expect to see substantial falls. Meanwhile we suspect that a few bargains may be had over the coming weeks. Finally should the Trump budget eventually be passed with significant tax cuts, then do expect stock markets to continue their advance with the Dow heading straight for that 22,000 level. If the budget fails to be passed, then a 10% correction is on the cards.

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